Login / Register
Contact Us
View Performance
Fixed Income
U.S. Equity
International & Global Equity
Chart Library
Market & Economic Commentary
Fund Literature
Prospectuses, Reports & Holdings
Fact Sheets
Client Guides
Fund Literature
Advisor Resources
Advisor Materials
View Resources
Tax Information
Corporate Credit Highlights
Glossary of Terms

Weekly Market Summary

July 1 to July 5, 2024

View Current Performance

Extra Credit*

  • The intermediate BB-BBB basis has compressed to year-to-date tights. Since mid-June, BBs have tightened, and BBBs have widened. As a result, the BB-BBB basis has compressed substantially, the tightest it has been since January 2020. The BBB/BB ratio has compressed 0.25x in June and is close to multi-year low. While some of the basis compression can be explained by the fact that both investment-grade and high-yield spreads are tight in general amid sustained demand for all-in-yield, the relationship also looks extremely compressed when viewed as a ratio of spreads rather than a difference.
  • Investment-grade credit new-issuance activity for 2024 keeps surprising to the upside. Although expectations are for supply to slow after a record first quarter, primary markets have been robust in USD. In fact, seasonal trends imply $1.41 trillion for 2024 given the year-to-date pace, which would be about $200 billion above current forecasts. Many issuers have pulled issuance forward, and presidential-election uncertainty should drive lower supply in the last half of 2024. Issuers have likely stepped up issuance in the first half of 2024 because of concerns about the election, opportunistic issuance based on rates, and a constructive spread environment.
  • Year-to-date investment-grade credit supply is the second largest on record at $805 billion (behind only 2020). Relative to this time last year, issuance is up 19% year-over-year, as the primary market has been extremely active after a downswing as issuers held out for lower rates in 2023. When excluding 2020, year-to-date volumes are larger than previous years by a wide margin, over $70 billion/10% higher than the next most active year. If you simply assume the seasonal average in the second half of 2024 based on first-half volumes, 2024 year-end would sit at about $1.41 trillion in issuance, behind only the $1.69 trillion 2020 record.
  • Non-financials have been the driver in overshooting expectations. Industrials and utilities have combined to issue $475 billion so far this year, up 13% from last year (12% year-over-year in industrials, 19% in utilities) and representing 70% of our full-year forecast entering the year. Financials are up 29% year-over-year, but because of COVID-related issuance, there was a massive increase in the maturity wall for this year, telegraphing a jump in gross issuance.
  • Bank-loan and high-yield bond default rates, excluding distressed exchanges, finished May both at 1.25%, respectively. This was compared to 1.32% and 1.55% from April, as the high yield default rate were 30 bps lower and the loan default rate now sit at a 16-month low. The long-term historical default rate for loans and high yield bonds was 3.0% and 3.4%, respectively.

Sources: Bloomberg and JP Morgan as of 7/1/24.

Yield as of:
July 5, 2024
High-Yield Bonds
Investment-Grade Corporates
Last Week
Prior Week
Start of the Year
Option Adjusted Spread as of:
July 5, 2024
High-Yield Bonds
Investment-Grade Corporates
Last Week
314 bps
473 bps
84 bps
Prior Week
309 bps
482 bps
88 bps
Start of the Year
323 bps
501 bps
93 bps
Prices as of:
July 5, 2024
High-Yield Bonds
Investment-Grade Corporates
Last Week
Prior Week
Start of the Year

*Source: Morningstar®, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse. OAS is Options Adjusted Spread. 4-year discount margin is used for spread for bank loans. Yield quoted is yield-to-worst or equivalent calculation. YTD Low / High for yields are based on end of week and not intraday movements. Indexes and sub-indexes: Investment-grade corporates represented by Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index. High-yield bonds represented by Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index. Bank loans represented by Credit Suisse Leverage Loan Index. The red and green arrows depicted under Yields, Option Adjusted Spreads, and Prices indicate a higher or lower value from the previous week.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index performance is not indicative of fund performance. Indexes are unmanaged and it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Any discussion of individual companies is not intended as recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities issued by those companies. Aristotle Fund holdings can be found on the fund pages linked above.

Investors should consider a fund’s investment goal, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus and/or the applicable summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Fund and are available from AristotleFunds.com. The prospectus and/or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

Foreside Financial Services, LLC, distributor.

Scroll horizontally to view tables
Please Upgrade Your Browser.

Unfortunately, Internet Explorer is an outdated browser and we do not support it. To have the best browsing experience, please upgrade to Google Chrome, Firefox or Safari.